Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 March 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 12 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE occasionally reached 700 km/s during the 24 hour period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to occasionally active levels, with a chance for minor storms at high latitudes, during days 1 and 2 (13-14 March), Day 3 (15 Mar) is expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 069
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm04%04%01%

All times in UTC

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