Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. An emerging flux region was observed at N10E03.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
continued influence of a high speed stream. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE satellite ranged from 685 km/s near 2300Z to 569
km/s near 1700Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (14 March), quiet on day 2
(15 March) in response to a slackening solar wind. A return to
unsettled levels is anticipated on day 3 (16 March) with the
possibility of active periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 070 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 008/008-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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