Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 April 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 09 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A CME from beyond the SW limb was first observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery at 09/1026Z. This CME appears to be back-sided and is not expected to be geoeffective. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. Solar wind velocities, observed on the ACE satellite, remained at elevated levels due to the continued high speed stream. Velocities ranged from 635 km/sec to 778 km/sec during the past 24 hours, while the IMF Bz fluctuated between 4.2 nT to -3.6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels at mid-latitudes and isolated minor to major storm conditions at high latitudes for day one (10 April), due to persistent effects from the high speed stream. Conditions should return to quiet to unsettled levels for day two (11 April) as the influence of the high speed stream is expected to wane. Conditions should be predominantly quiet on day three (12 April).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 068
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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