Viewing archive of Friday, 28 March 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 28 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 987 (S08W18), 988 (S08E07), and 989 (S12E36) have shown little change and retain their beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance of a C-class event from any of the three numbered regions on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels due to the continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft is averaging around 640 km/s. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for 29-30 March. Predominately quiet levels are expected for 31 March as the high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 083
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  019/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  010/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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