Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 March 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 29 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The three spotted regions on the disk, 987 (S06W31), 988 (S08W06), and 989 (S12E23) were all generally stable and quiet during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated C-class event during the next three days (30 March - 01 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed as measured at ACE showed a downward trend during the period which is indicative of the decline of the high speed solar wind stream; day-end values were around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (30 March) and is expected to be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (31 March - 01 April).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 083
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  013/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  008/010-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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