Viewing archive of Friday, 23 May 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 23 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at ACE remains elevated between 450-520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (24-26 May). Isolated active periods remain possible on days 1 and 2 (24-25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 068
  Predicted   24 May-26 May  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        23 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  008/010-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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