Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 June 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 19 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 999 (S03E20) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind velocity observed at ACE showed a steady decline during the past 24 hours, with day end speeds around 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day (20 June), and is expected to be predominantly quiet for second and third days (20-21 June).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 065
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  065/065/065
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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