Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 June 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (26-28 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active for the past 24 hours. A small increase in the solar wind velocity at ACE was observed: velocity reached approximately 450 km/s by the end of the period. Bz fluctuated with values ranging up to +/- 10 nT during the past 24 hours. These signatures are consistent with a weak high speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels at the beginning of the period and dropped below threshold at 24/2205Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active periods during the next two days ( 26-27 June). The activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on the third day (28 June).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 066
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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