Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 June 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 26 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Conditions were initially unsettled but increased to predominantly active levels from 0000-1500Z. A particularly notable substorm was observed between 0900-1200Z, which elevated some high latitude sites to storm level activity. Activity levels have declined to quiet to unsettled levels since 1500Z. Solar wind signatures showed an increase in velocity from initial values of about 500 km/s to about 650 km/s by 0800Z. Solar wind velocity continued to be elevated in the 600-650 km/s range through the remainder of the day. The solar wind observations were all consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first day (27 June) while the solar wind velocity remains elevated. Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels for the second day (28 June) and predominantly quiet for the third day (29 June).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 065
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  065/065/065
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%10%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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