Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 July 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 15 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from 670 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (16-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 066
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  005/008-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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