Viewing archive of Monday, 14 July 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The recurrent coronal hole high speed stream remained geoeffective. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from approximately 650 km/s to 730 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled on Day 1 (15 July), becoming quiet on Day 2 (16 July). Activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 3 (17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 066
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/010-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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