Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 July 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind velocities measured at the ACE Spacecraft ranged from approximately 650 - 700 km/s. This increase is in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days one and two (14-15 July). The activity is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (16 July) as the effects of the coronal hole decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 065
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  016/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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