Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
velocities measured at the ACE Spacecraft ranged from approximately
650 - 700 km/s. This increase is in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days
one and two (14-15 July). The activity is in response to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day three (16 July) as the effects of the coronal hole
decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 065 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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