Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 August 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 09 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. As the recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream approaches, the solar wind data as measured at the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region around 08/2300Z. The velocity, density, and temperature began to rise, the Bt averaged around +20 nT and the Bz fluctuated between +18 nT to -12 nT. Solar wind speeds continue to slowly rise and are averaging around 620 km/s at the time of this posting.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions possible for day one (10 August). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August), with mostly quiet conditions expected for day three (12 August) as the effects of the coronal hole decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Aug 066
  Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        09 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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