Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 August 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 16 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (17-19 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next three days (17-19 August). The increase is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 066
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  007/008-010/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%50%55%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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