Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 12 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13 September. Predominately unsettled conditions with isolated active levels are expected for 14 September. Unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storming are expected for 15 September. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 066
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  005/008-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%35%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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