Viewing archive of Monday, 18 August 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 18 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet to unsettled until about 0600Z when conditions became disturbed due to the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Activity levels were at active to minor storm levels for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active on day one (19 August), due to the persistent effects from the high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (20 August), and quiet levels on day three (21 August).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 066
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  012/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%10%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%15%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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