Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds measured at the ACE spacecraft indicate a gradual increase in velocity. As the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream approaches, speeds have increased from about 285 km/s to around 350 km/s over the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions for 15 September due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 September, with mostly quiet conditions expected for 17 September.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 067
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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