Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A new-cycle sunspot was numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions, Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s during the period. The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period between 11/0600Z - 11/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 13 October. Predominately quiet levels are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 071
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  071/072/072
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  020/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  015/020-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%15%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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