Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low with no flares observed.
Region 1005 (N26W15) was quiet and stable during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels all three days of the forecast period
(16 - 18 October).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 071 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 072/073/073 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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