Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 October 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 16 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. Region 1005 (N26W29) was quiet and stable during the period. Region 1006 (S27W63) was numbered today and is an alpha magnetic configuration. This region exhibits New Cycle 24 magnetic polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet all three days of the forecast period (17 - 19 October).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 072
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  072/072/071
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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