Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. An A9 X-ray flare occurred
at 18/1200Z with no obvious optical flare association. The visible
disk was spotless. Region 1006 (N26W91) rotated out of view during
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (19 - 21
October).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 069 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 069/069/068 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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