Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (04-06 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. Conditions were initially completely undisturbed, but around 0600Z a gradual increase in solar wind speed and magnetic field intensity began. In response geomagnetic activity increased slightly to quiet to unsettled levels through the remainder of the day. The solar wind signatures appear to be consistent with the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days (04-06 December) with a chance for isolated active periods. The enhanced activity is expected due to the high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Dec 069
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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