Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 December 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data indicated the continuation of a high speed solar wind stream with peak velocities around 500 km/s. However, velocity showed a steady decline after 0700Z and was around 380 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled with chance for an isolated active period for the first day (05 December). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the second day (06 December) and generally quiet levels are expected for the third day (07 December).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Dec 070
  Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        04 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Dec  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%05%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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