Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 December 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 31 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream began early in the summary period. Velocities gradually increased from 305 to 559 km/sec during the period. IMF changes associated with the transition to the high-speed stream included increased Bt (peak 17 nT at 31/0000Z) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -16 nT at 31/0131Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels during days 1 - 2 (January 1 - 2) as the coronal hole high-speed stream continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (3 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 069
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  012/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  008/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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