Viewing archive of Friday, 5 December 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 05 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. One period of active to minor storm conditions was observed between 0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 December), followed by quiet conditions for the remainder of the forecast period (7-8 Dec) as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Dec 069
  Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        05 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm04%01%00%

All times in UTC

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