Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 December 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 23 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream began early in the summary period. Solar wind velocities increased to a high of 579 km/sec at 23/1419Z and remained elevated during the rest of the period. IMF Bz was variable in the +07 to -07 nT range with a sustained southward period during approximately 22/2300Z to 23/0400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period (24 - 26 December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 069
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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