Viewing archive of Monday, 4 May 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 May 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 May). Field activity
is expected to increase to unsettled levels on days two and three
(06 - 07 May) with a chance for active levels at high latitudes due
to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 068 Predicted 05 May-07 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 005/005-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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