Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods
for the next three days (13-15 September) as a coronal hole is
expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 069 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 069/068/068 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/007-007/007-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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