Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled
period was observed at high latitudes between 13/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on day one (14
September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods
at high latitudes, are expected on days two and three (15-16
September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 069 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 007/007-007/010-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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