Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 September 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred and the solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. There are indications, however, of a possible new active region behind the east limb based on Stereo-B EUVI and GOES-14 SXI imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. A gradual increase in background levels is expected and a slight chance for an isolated B-class flare is anticipated as the new region rotates onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 071
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  072/074/076
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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