Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 September 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 20 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed and the solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. Solar x-ray images and Stereo B EUVI continue to indicate an active region just on or behind the east limb although so far there have not been any reports of the group in ground-based H-alpha imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. Background levels are expected to increase gradually as the new region rotates onto the solar disk. There is a slight chance for isolated B-class events during the next three days (21-23 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 September).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Sep 071
  Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep  073/075/077
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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