Viewing archive of Monday, 21 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was one B-class
event during the past 24 hours; a B1 x-ray event at 1256Z from newly
numbered Region 1026 (S29E63). The current proximity of the region
to the limb prevented detailed analysis. The remainder of the disk
was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A slow increase in background levels is expected as Region 1026
rotates more fully into view. There is a chance for additional
isolated B-class events from Region 1026.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 September).
Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third
days (23-24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 072 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 074/076/077 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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