Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were two x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, a B3 at 1057Z and a B4 at 2041Z.
Both of these events originated from Region 1026 (S29E57) which has
rotated into view as a small, C-type sunspot group with a simple
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1027 (N24E31) emerged on the
disk today and appears to be a small D-type region in a simple beta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (23-25 September). There is a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 075 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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