Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 23 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1026 (S36E34) has
shown little change while Region 1027 (N23E21) has grown in both
white light areal coverage and sunspot count. No flares were
observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event given
the two regions on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (24-25 September).
Unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected for
day three (26 September) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 077 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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