Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flare
activity was observed. However, isolated eruptive activity was
observed in a plage region near S28W01. EIT wave activity and weak
x-ray enhancements were associated with the eruptions. Thus far,
there are no indications of Earth-directed CME activity associated
with the eruptions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 - 20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 071 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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