Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 November 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) off the southwest limb at 0501 UTC on 31 October. The CME appears to be earth directed with a plane-of sky speed of 380 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (4 November). Unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (5 November) due to possible effects from the CME observed on 31 October. Quiet levels are expected to return on day 3 (6 November).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 072
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  005/005-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%30%10%
Minor storm01%20%01%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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