Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The SOHO/LASCO imagery
observed a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) off the southwest limb
at 0501 UTC on 31 October. The CME appears to be earth directed
with a plane-of sky speed of 380 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (4 November). Unsettled conditions
are expected on day 2 (5 November) due to possible effects from the
CME observed on 31 October. Quiet levels are expected to return on
day 3 (6 November).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 072 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 005/005-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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