Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No spotted regions appear
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (5 November) due to possible
effects from the CME of 31 October. Quiet conditions will return on
day 2 and 3 (6-7November).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 071 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 008/008-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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