Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1030 (N25E04) was
numbered today as a Cro beta sunspot group with 5 spots. No flares
were observed during the past 24-hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07 November). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (08 November) as a
weak recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 071 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/006-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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