Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 02 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar Activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (03-04 Dec). Conditions
are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for isolated active periods as a recurrent coronal hole
becomes geoeffective early on day three (05 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 071 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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