Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (04 Dec). Quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected
on days two and three (05-06 Dec) as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 072 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 072/073/073 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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