Viewing archive of Friday, 4 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated
active conditions, for days one and two (05-06 December) due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Conditions are expected
to return to quiet levels for day three (07 December).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 072 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 000/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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