Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar Activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar Activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two isolated unsettled periods, 25/0000-0600Z. A secondary solar wind data source, SOHO/MTOF, indicated the earth is currently in a high speed stream, preceded by a co-rotating interaction region detected by the ACE spacecraft early yesterday. Wind speeds, as measured by SOHO/MTOF, averaged 430-470 km/sec during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (26 Nov) based on recurrence. Quiet conditions are expected to return on days two and three (27-28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Nov 074
  Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  074/073/071
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  007/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  007/-99999-005/-99999-005/-99999
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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