Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 December 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 22 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1036 (S27W58) produced a C7/Sf flare at 22/0456Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 531 km/sec) and discrete frequency radio bursts, the largest of which was 4900 sfu at 245 MHz. There was also a faint, slow-moving partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare (estimated velocity 300 km/sec). Region 1036 gradually decayed from a D-type to a B-type spot group during the period. Additional isolated low-level C-class flares and occasional B-class flares also occurred during the period. Region 1035 (N31W98) crossed the west limb early in the period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during days 1 - 2 (23 - 24 December) with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Activity is expected to drop to very low levels on day 3 (25 December) as Region 1036 departs the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels through the period (23 - 25 December). The CME mentioned above is not expected to significantly disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 082
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  078/076/074
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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