Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 23 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated B- and C-class flares
occurred. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 1036 (S28W70) at
23/1017Z. Region 1036 showed no significant changes during the
period. Region 1038 (N15W69) gradually decayed during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low
during days 1 - 2 (24 - 25 December) with isolated C-class flares
expected. There will also be a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare. Activity is expected to decrease to very low levels on day 3
(26 December), once Regions 1036 and 1038 depart the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (24 - 26
December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 078 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 076/074/072 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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