Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 24 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1038 (N13W81) was a single spot Axx group today and continues to decay as it approaches the west limb. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft show a possible weak, short lived, coronal hole signature during the past 24 hours. Velocities steadily increased after 24/0300Z from 350 km/s to 450 km/s as the density decreased. Solar wind speed has since slowly decreased and returned to around 350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (25-27 December).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 077
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  074/072/072
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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