Viewing archive of Friday, 25 December 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind observations from the ACE satellite decreased gradually after 24/2235Z, from 380 km/s to 282 km/s at 25/1457Z. Velocities then increased to 354 km/s at 25/1708Z as the density increased to a peak of 13 p/cc. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased, with the total field reaching +10 nT at 25/1852Z. The southward component of the IMF ranged between -8 nT and +7 nT, with the peak of -8 nT at 25/1609Z. This activity is consistent with the arrival of the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 22 December.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods possible at high latitudes, on day one (26 December). Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (27-28 December).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Dec 076
  Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        25 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Dec  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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