Viewing archive of Monday, 28 December 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 28 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1039 (S28E18) has shown little change from yesterday and remains a beta group. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE spacecraft show solar wind velocities average around 335 km/s with minor fluctuations in the IMF southward component, Bz, from +2/-2 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (29-31 December).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 076
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  078/078/079
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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