Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N30E35) produced a
C1.0 flare at 1503Z. Several B-class flares were observed prior to
the C-flare. Region 1040 has grown during the past 24 hours and is a
10-spot Cri-beta group with an area of approximately 70 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first two days (10-11 January). Quiet,
with isolated unsettled levels, are expected on day three (12
January) as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 082 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 084/086/088 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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