Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1034 (N19E16)
remains a small Bxo bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated
C-class event from Region 1034 during the next three days (14 - 16
December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (14 - 16 December).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 076 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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