Viewing archive of Monday, 14 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Todays activity
consisted of a few low-level B class events. New Region 1035
(N31E07) emerged on the disk today and is a simple bi-polar group.
Region 1034 (N20E03) was quiet and appears to be decaying slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (15 - 17 December).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 079 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 080/082/084 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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